Copper cathode inventories declined significantly during the week, with spot premiums rising strongly. [SMM Weekly Review of Shanghai Spot Copper]

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       >As the Labour Day holiday approached, there were only three trading days in the week. In the Shanghai region, destocking of copper cathode reached nearly 15,000 mt. Spot premiums for Shanghai spot copper rose steadily to over 200 yuan/mt. Due to robust pre-holiday stockpiling demand and limited supply from both imported and domestic sources, coupled with the positive impact on copper cathode consumption from the substitution of refined copper for scrap, outflows from warehouses were significant. Currently, the price spread between futures contracts for the next month and the current month (BACK) has stabilized above 200 yuan/mt, with the BACK for further-out months continuing to widen. The current volume of registered warrants is low, and it is expected that there may be a risk of a short squeeze in May. Looking ahead after the holiday, considering the cost of capital during the holiday, spot traders may quote prices at a premium of 300 yuan/mt upon returning after the holiday. However, with the expectation of a continued rise in the BACK and the approaching delivery date, it is anticipated that the premiums will be somewhat suppressed, exhibiting a pattern of moving downwards after a higher opening.

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